The Long View

What changed: Al Jazeera reports that fighting intensified across parts of Tigray on Wednesday and spread to Afar and Amhara, with the Tigray Army saying federal forces launched a "full-scale offensive" using infantry, mechanised units and drones, and that it had begun counteroffensives. Tigrayan forces seized airports in the region and Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Tigray, while local reports said Abala in Afar had been captured. Federal adviser Getachew Reda gave the opposite account, accusing the TPLF of attacking first.

Why it matters: Ethiopia is Africa's second most populous country, and the 2020 to 2022 Tigray war was one of the deadliest conflicts of recent decades; a return to fighting on several fronts would reach far beyond Tigray. The strongest case for alarm is that armed movements which used to fight each other are now coordinating against the government, and IGAD and the UN have already voiced concern. The case for caution is that early war reporting is often partial, accounts of who started conflict are contested, and it is not yet clear whether the offensive is sustained or limited.

The two sides give opposite accounts of who began the fighting, and neither has been independently verified.

What changed: Xi Jinping is making his first White House visit in more than a decade for talks with Trump, according to Al Jazeera, with trade, AI, Taiwan and the war in Iran described as the leading topics. The BBC reports that AI ambitions will be among the most important items when the two presidents sit down on Thursday. No outcomes from the meeting are reported in the evidence.

Why it matters: The evidence points to two competing readings. One is that the US still holds the lead, thanks to huge private investment in frontier labs and restrictions on advanced chip sales, so the summit is Washington negotiating from strength. The other, voiced by the Asia Society Policy Institute's Lizzi Lee in the BBC report, is that leadership at the frontier may matter less than making capable AI cheap, open and everywhere, which is where China's open weight models and low cost electricity give it leverage.

No agreements or outcomes from the meeting are reported in the evidence.

What changed: ShinyHunters claims it breached FBI servers on Monday night and began giving reporters samples on Tuesday, saying it holds names, roles, badge numbers, home addresses, phone numbers and spouse details for about 38,000 bureau staff. The FBI said on X that it is aware of the claim and is "actively and aggressively investigating", including working with third-party providers that support FBIJobs.gov to establish whether its own systems or a supplier were breached.

Why it matters: If the claim holds up, home addresses and family details of federal agents working on Chinese and Russian intelligence cases and drug cartels would be a personal safety and counterintelligence problem that no patch can undo. The competing reading is that ShinyHunters has a record of exaggerating access to raise its profile, and the FBI's own carefully worded statement leaves open that a contractor system, not the bureau, was breached. Watch whether the FBI names the source and whether the group follows through on its threat to publish.

The FBI has not confirmed that any breach occurred, or whether any compromise was of its own systems or a third-party provider.